Every four years, give or take, Bitcoin's new supply is cut in half. Every four years, give or take, its price has gone through a full boom and bust. The two facts are linked in the minds of most crypto traders, and the "four-year cycle" is the closest thing the market has to a calendar. Whether it will keep working is the most argued-about question in the asset.
The halving
Miners are paid new bitcoin for processing transactions. The amount is fixed in the code and halves every 210,000 blocks — roughly every four years. It was 50 coins per block in 2009, 25 after 2012, 12.5 after 2016, 6.25 after 2020, 3.125 after April 2024. The next halving, to about 1.56 coins, is expected around spring 2028.
The economic argument is simple. If demand stays the same and new supply halves, the price should rise. Miners, who must sell coins to pay their electricity bills, sell half as many, and that steady selling pressure is one of the few predictable flows in the market.
The cycle so far
| Halving | Price at halving | Peak (months later) | Following low, from peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2012 | about $12 | about $1,100 (12 months) | −85% |
| July 2016 | about $650 | about $19,500 (17 months) | −84% |
| May 2020 | about $8,700 | about $69,000 (18 months) | −77% |
| April 2024 | about $64,000 | — | — |
The shape is consistent: a run-up into the halving, a larger rise in the twelve to eighteen months after it, then a crash of three-quarters or more, then a year or two of quiet before the next halving. Three cycles is a small sample, but the pattern is striking.
Why it might be weakening
Three arguments, each with some force:
- The halving matters less each time. Cutting daily new supply from 900 coins to 450 is a small change against daily traded volume in the tens of thousands. The first halving cut supply that was large relative to the market; the fifth will cut supply that is tiny relative to it.
- The buyers have changed. Since 2024, spot Bitcoin funds and corporate treasuries hold a large share of the supply. Their buying is driven by allocation decisions and interest rates, not by halving folklore. That should smooth the cycle, as it did in gold when central banks became the marginal buyer.
- Everyone knows about it. A pattern that every participant expects tends to be front-run and flattened. The 2024 cycle's rise began before the halving rather than after it, which is what front-running looks like.
Against these, the crashes have been remarkably similar in depth despite completely different market sizes, which suggests the cycle is as much about human behaviour — greed, then panic — as about supply. Human behaviour does not update because the market got bigger.
Using it without betting on it
The sensible use of the cycle is as context, not as a trading signal. Roughly:
- The year after a halving is historically the strongest. Long-biased crypto masters look best here, and their track records that start in this phase are flattered by it.
- Twelve to eighteen months after a halving is where the previous three cycles peaked. Drawdown discipline matters most from here on.
- The year after a peak is where 75% falls have happened. A master whose record includes 2022 and survived it has shown you something no bull-market record can.
What the cycle does not give you is timing. Nobody rang a bell at $69,000 in November 2021. The peak is known in hindsight, and a master who claims to call it in advance is a master to be careful with.
Miner selling, the part of the cycle that is mechanical
One piece of the cycle is not psychology at all. Miners receive new coins and must sell most of them to pay for electricity and hardware. After a halving their income in coins halves overnight while their costs do not, so the least efficient miners shut down and the selling from the survivors is smaller in absolute terms. That reduction in steady supply hitting the market is real and measurable, and it arrives on a schedule. It is not large enough to move the price by itself at today's market size, but it tilts the balance a little in the months after each halving — which is why the effect, if it persists, should be a gentler version of the past rather than a repeat of it.
What it means for a copier now
As of early 2026 the market is about two years past the April 2024 halving — the part of the cycle where previous peaks occurred. That is not a prediction that a peak is due; it is a reason to weigh drawdown control more heavily than return when choosing a crypto master this year. Look for a Max drawdown that was earned in a real fall, not just in a bull-market wobble, and for position sizes that leave room for a 30% week — which, in Bitcoin, is not an extreme scenario.
The four-year cycle has been right three times, which is enough to respect and not enough to rely on. Use it to decide how careful to be, not what to do.
This article is education, not investment advice. Trading and copy trading in leveraged instruments carry a high risk of losing the funds you allocate. Read the Risk Disclosure.